Oliver Wyman Forum, the think tank of Oliver Wyman, a global leader in management consulting and a business of Marsh (NYSE: MRSH), today released findings from its third annual CEO Agenda survey. The joint report was completed in collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange.
Based on responses from 415 CEOs representing roughly 10% of global market capitalisation, the study reveals that a complex workforce transformation is accelerating. AI adoption is reshaping talent strategies and fueling a surge in deal-making as companies adapt to a rapidly evolving economic landscape.
In a market shaped by nonstop volatility, CEOs are doubling down on acquisitions, with 94% of executives planning to pursue mergers and acquisitions in the next one to two years. Nearly two-thirds of respondents reported plans to leverage industry consolidation as another mechanism to build scale and competitive advantage.
The study also finds that 43% of CEOs plan to deprioritise hiring for junior roles within the next year, marking a sharp increase from 17% last year, and 34% report that their workforce will shift toward more mid-level roles. However, among organisations leading in AI adoption, a different pattern is emerging: these leaders more often see AI technology as a force multiplier rather than a replacement, with 24% reporting plans to increase junior-level hires.
“AI is not just automating tasks; it is elevating the value of entry-level talent,” said John Romeo, CEO of the Oliver Wyman Forum. “The companies getting the highest returns from AI are harnessing it to empower their workforce, not shrink it.”
At the same time, most respondents believe it is still too early to evaluate the return on AI investment, with the share rising to 53%, up from 41% last year. Only 27% of respondents say return on investment has met or exceeded expectations, down from 38% a year ago. Nearly a quarter of respondents report zero revenue impact so far. Executives are finding that deployment at scale requires a gradual, comprehensive redesign of work. However, organisations farther ahead in AI deployment are seeing much stronger returns: nearly three times as many report that investment in AI is meeting or exceeding expectations (49% versus 17%).
“CEOs are no longer waiting for stability before they act. They are converting disruption into a competitive advantage and seeking to buy the scale and capabilities that take too long to build,” said Ana Kreacic, Partner and Chief Operating Officer of the Oliver Wyman Forum.
The CEO Agenda 2026 is the largest annual survey of large-company chief executives by market capitalisation and equity value, capturing the perspectives of 415 CEOs — 266 from public companies and 149 from private companies. The public companies accounted for in this year’s survey represent roughly 10% of global market capitalisation. Sixty-five CEOs of Fortune 500 companies participated, of which 6 are in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
